Gennady ‘GGG’ Golovkin vs Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez II – September 15th 2018.
This is one of those fights involving fighters both of whom I admire greatly.
GGG and Canelo are two guys at the very top of their game.
Many people referred to the result of the first fight between GGG and Canelo as ‘controversial’.
I don’t refer to it as controversial. 2 judges scored it ‘reasonably’, one judge’s score defies explanation.
My notes from the fight (Scores GGG vs Canelo) which I scored 117-111 to GGG:
R1 – Canelo really good hand speed from the outset. GGG stalks and misses, slow start, looks one-dimensional. 9–10
R2 – GGG improves with the jab. Canelo eye-catching shots but less accurate. GGG sticking with singles now and seems to ‘expect’ a counter from Canelo…which he is attempting. 10–9
R3 – Strong start from GGG, leading off with left hooks and finds range well. Canelo seeks to respond but again a little inaccurate. GGG is setting the pace and there is a marked increase in punch rate from GGG and he takes many incoming on the arms. 10–9
R4 – Canelo jab working very well, first time I have noticed this. Lays on the ropes a bit and showboats…but is actually ineffectual in terms of actively winning points. GGG is a solid counter puncher too, little push outs but looks to push back and engage instantly. Canelo pushes out and disengages fully – no desire to dominate the opponent from Canelo. 10–9
R5 – Eye-catching evasive body movement and footwork from Canelo. GGG is like a metronome at a medium to fast rate. Not flashy but effective. CLOSE ROUND. 10–9
R6 – Strong start from Canelo. Effective in putting Golovkin on the back foot, following on a strong end to the round. Canelo is best standing his ground and out working Golovkin with a more dynamic range of shots. Sustaining that work for more than 30 seconds seems to be Canelo’s issue. 9-10
R7 – Canelo attempts the same opening assault as the previous round but this time GGG stamps on it halting him in his tracks. Some good back foot work from Canelo but not enough shots landed. GGG with the more clean and powerful punches. CLOSE ROUND 10–9
R8 – Hardworking start from GGG. Seems to not want a repeat of R6. Canelo is most effective and successful when he seeks to beat GGG to the punch rather than counter as such. Again, his problem is that he’s not able to sustain that it seems. CLOSE ROUND 10–9
R9 – Canelo more effective. Stands his ground for longer periods and lands the best shot of the fight. 9-10
R10 – Strong start from Canelo, but does not/cannot sustain that ‘facing GGG down’ approach, GGG simply overpowers him and Canelo must retreat – he can maybe ‘stand ground’ operate in that way for 30 seconds at a time. 10-9
R11 – GGG dominates, the jab is key. Canelo very good defensively but still taking more shots that GGG is. Canelo can simply not match GGG for power or intensity over a more prolonged period…than 30 seconds. 10-9
R12 – Intense Canelo start, has a great opening minute, but then GGG takes the next 2 minutes and for me wins round and the fight. – 10-9
So my scores are 117-111 to GGG. This said, some close rounds, I had 3 rounds close. Supposing someone flipped those 3 rounds then we are down to 115-113. One more and we have the draw.
So, prediction.
I think GGG wins…
I think he can afford to do the same as he did before, it worked…except for the 3rd judge. I think also he will be more intense.
If Canelo learns from the last fight and uses that learning, then he could come out as the winner.
So, it’s all about Canelo.
There was enough in the first fight for Canelo’s team to build a real strong strategy to beat Golovkin.
He’s now it looks:
- Canelo is not getting a KO against GGG, but GGG could well KO Canelo.
- Strong start to every 2 rounds out of 3. This means frontal assault, dynamic hooking and uppercuts for the first 30 seconds. Stand ground, go head-to-head and outwork GGG.
- For the 90 seconds, recover and pot shot without allowing GGG to dominate.
- In each of those rounds, finish with a strong last minute – same concept, outwork GGG with more dynamic up-close work.
The judges remember the first bit and end bit of the round and often break the round into 3 equal segments, awarding each boxer a segment of the round according to their judging criteria. If Canelo can edge the 1st and last minute of the round then cool.
Canelo does run the risk from the stronger GGG, and GGG is very smart. He’ll notice patterns in Canelo’s approach and counter them, so Canelo needs a Plan B and probably Plan C.
Thoughts and observations welcome.
Cheers
Fran
by 
I have to respectfully disagree with you on this one Coach…I thought Canelo out-boxed GGG in the first fight and think he can do it again.
Saul was brilliant last year and made GGG look pedestrian in comparison…As a result, I think he can and will do it again – as long as he doesn’t fall for Abel Sanchez’s mind-game efforts to make him “stand and fight instead of run” Run? Imho, Canelo was boxing GGG’s ears off and/or making him miss for 2/3s of each round in the first fight – so it was natural that he’d put some distance between them to get a rest every now and then.
If Canelo brings his A-game he beats the brakes off GGG tonight…Of course, if you ARE right and I am wrong – it wouldn’t be the first time….Groves/Froch II comes to mind…LOL
Cheers Coach
Hello Old Pal
Having enjoyed copious amounts of Thai food and one or two beers (it was my birthday after all) I managed to fall asleep and wake up at round 6. Canelo certainly seemed to stand his ground a lot more than I expected and he looked good. I need to watch the fight in full this week to really digest what went on. Those rounds were close though and I was very impressed with Canelo (his close range skills are exceptional).
Your thoughts on the night?
Nice…I’m glad you had a great birthday celebration Fran.
I really enjoyed the fight and thought Canelo was boxing like a star right from the opening bell. His punches were crisp and accurate, his combos landed with solid power and he controlled the center of the ring. Much like the first match, he looked calm and comfortable thru-out the fight, but this time he stood his ground and had GGG backing up instead of chasing.
Imho, GGG is just not quite the complete boxer that Canelo is. He’s too basic – no frills, no thrills and I thought he was only able to put up a good challenge when Saul rested during the last third of the fight – due likely to being fatigued as you mentioned would happen in your prediction.
I’ve learned from training that boxing can take a toll on the best of ’em and thought Canelo took his foot off the gas a little too long in the mid to late rounds which risked letting the win slip away – like Manny did against Timothy Bradley in their first fight.
However, although Saul had slowed down late in the fight and GGG was blowing quite heavily by the midway mark and had to put in a lot of extra effort to get some of those mid to late rounds secured in his favour, I was very impressed with his determination. At the final bell I thought Canelo had done just enough to get the win — But it was close and I was extremely happy with the decision.
Your thoughts?
Thanks Paul
It’s really interesting how different eyes can see different things.
I watched the fight with the volume down. I agree that GGG works lots of basic stuff, he does use some subtle skills, but he’s about solid basics and strength. I thought he was the more accurate puncher early on (at long range), especially with the jab and occasional back hand. Canelo is the flashier boxer, but I had GGG winning many of the earlies. I then had Canelo come on strong 7 through 9. I thought that Canelo hurt GGG at some point with a body shot, because he became quite body shot happy. I thought 10 and 11 were close, maybe edging Canelo’s way and 12 went to GGG. So, 115-113 to GGG for me, but with the close rounds it could have been the close rounds it could have gone 115-113 Canelo.
Great fight…I’m sure it will happen again, and it was no robbery that’s for sure.
Good analysis, Coach….I agree that it was ‘no robbery’ but a great display of each man doing their best give fans a truly great fight – both times!
Cheers Fran
I wonder if you think the failed test for Clenbuterol plays into this contest, Fran? Will Canelo be less able to perform to the same standard as he did in his enhanced state? He certainly looks leaner this time. Will GGG be spurred on in the knowledge that Canelo cheated last time out and come out blazing?
I’m not necessarily convinced by the claims that GGG is on the slide. I think he’s got a few performances left in him yet. I expect him to come out at the first bell knowing exactly what’s in front of him and take the fight to Canelo. There’s no way the Mexican wins a shoot out so he needs to punch and move. I think this will be effective for a while, much like Kell Brook managed. But before we get to the championship rounds I think GGG will get to Canelo and force a stoppage. If it goes to the judges…who knows what will happen? I hope it doesn’t. We need a decisive outcome.
Hello mate. Given Clenbuterol burns fat, builds muscle and enhances performance, then if Canelo was ‘using’ during his prep then I would think absolutely he’ll have doubts as to his ability to even partially deal with GGGs strength this time around. If GGG sets the pace, which he surely must, then Canelo will absolutely tire.
I’m with you. GGG is a precise and powerful puncher and a very smart operator. I think we may well see a very good middleweight take on a very good welterweight (I think at best he tops out at light middle). Canelo just doesn’t bring enough.
From a boxing skill point of view I understand your respect for both fighters, I do though have some concerns around Canelo and the explanations for positive tests of banned substances. That aside I see GGG’ s forward pressure style as suiting the counter punching Canelo. He really struggled against Mayweather, yes he is much better now, but Mayweather had his number and knew exactly what to do. I can’t see GGG suddenly changing to fight like Mayweather however Canelo was hard for GGG to hit flush, I agree GGG doesn’t need to change much, but he has had a lot of comments regarding his boxing “age” with hundreds of bouts so he has a bit to prove too. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see GGG change up his timing, like Duran did later in his career, and try and draw Canelo onto his full power with off beat and half beat timing in footwork and combinations. I think it will go the distance, the risk for GGG is he gets too desperate to prove a point and plays into Canelo’s counter punching as a result. If GGG lures Canelo in or catches him off balance then we could see a short fight. Like Tyson’s famous quote which was something like – everyone has a plan until they get punched in the head.
Brilliant comment John. I agree on the PEDs issue with Canelo. In most sports a ban would be measured in years as opposed to 6 months, a period that lot’s of top level fighters will have out of the ring anyway – it amounted to zero punishment for a positive test, that’s never good especially in a high risk sport like boxing. So, my admiration is in respect of fighting style as opposed to anything else.
GGG has always looked after himself, so he’s going to be primed. I think Canelo has no choice in many ways but to stand and fight, at least for periods of time…otherwise we get a re-run. My question is can he be smart enough to land effectively on the retreat – I don’t see it.
Great comment mate, thanks for taking the time.